Image from Another Angry Voice, representing the government’s Brexit impact forecasts seen by the BBC; government figures taken from Sarah Wollaston on Twitter, showing the 0.7 million to 2.8 million jobs that will be lost as a result of Brexit.
Unless there is a change of heart among our British friends, Brexit will become a reality, with all its negative consequences, in March [this] year. We on the continent haven’t had a change of heart. Our hearts are still open to you.’
‘If by the end of February or early March, it is clear that there is no [Brexit] deal on anything, there will be a declaration of a state of emergency in this country... ordinary life will grind to a halt.’
Government forecasts of the damage caused by Brexit, shown above, are joined by studies by Global Future, confirming that in every possible scenario, the UK will become worse off; by analysis by Berenberg Bank, confirming that the UK has neither the scale to dominate global trade, nor the legal burden to benefit from deregulation; by the Treasury’s forecast, before the referendum, of permanent economic decline; and by the advice of the overwhelming majority of economists in the UK. Worrying reports emerge of the potential failure of the UK’s supplies of food, fuel and medicine in the days and weeks following a Hard Brexit, of a UK temporarily under martial law, with curfews, travel bans, confiscations and soldiers on the streets, while The Daily Mail refers to an intelligence report describing the UK as unstable for decades, with a resurgent far right, unrest and riots, and independence referendums in Scotland and Ireland within eighteen months of departure. A new economic study predicts that the young could lose £108,000 each by 2050.
Research by the Online Privacy Foundation shows that Brexit voters were more swayed by emotion and instinct than Remain voters, and were more authoritarian and less amenable to reason, while IPSOS Mori found that Brexit voters were more likely than Remain voters to cite basic facts about the EU incorrectly. Although left-wing Brexiteers falsely present Brexit as a working-class movement, support for Brexit was in fact drawn from the elderly, with most voters under the age of forty-nine voting to remain, meaning that generational change will erode the mandate for Brexit by the year 2020. Research commissioned by Best for Britain suggests that 2.6 million Leave voters may have changed their minds, and a poll by Global Future shows that Leavers as well as Remainers throughout the UK believe the price of Brexit to be too high. While one quarter of Leave voters say they were lied to by the Leave campaign, evidence mounts that the campaign broke the law, that they knowingly imitated Nazi propaganda, that Russia influenced the Brexit vote through illicit funding and fake news, and that the Leave campaign’s illegal overspend accounted for the result. Opinion polls show that more voters oppose Brexit than voted for it in the first place, and favour a people’s vote on the final deal. An article on Chris Grey’s well-regarded Brexit Blog argues that Brexiteers would now be happier if they had lost.
The referendum, which was followed by a 23% rise in hate crime against racial and religious minorities, and was implicated in police reports of over five hundred crimes, including arson, rape and affray, also led to an astonishing array of threats and abuse against Remain activists and liberals, as Brexiteers demanded that we kill ourselves, be killed, be hanged, be shot, and be murdered by hitmen, while a YouGov poll showed that over half of Brexit voters favour hanging, and 42% favour beatings in schools.
In Wales, whose economy would be decimated under WTO rules, Welsh-speakers, Plaid Cymru supporters, and supporters of devolution for Wales voted Remain, while support for Brexit was drawn from those who identify as English rather than Welsh. Warnings by Cymdeithas yr Iaith and groups representing the other Celtic languages of the UK of ‘an insecure future for our [languages]’ as a result of damage to the farming industry and the annihilation of Welsh heartlands. At present, more than three quarters of voters would reject an economically damaging Brexit, and EU membership is now favoured in all but two Welsh constituencies. while studies conducted in England show that Brexit is a product of English nationalism, and reflects a hatred and mistrust of the Celtic nations. For commentators in Ireland, America and India, Brexit is both a hankering for Britain’s imperial past, based on a denial of its atrocities, and self-pity at its loss, along with a failure to understand the aspirations of the Celtic nations in the British union. Surveys suggest that Brexit could bring about support for Scottish independence and show growing support for unification in Ireland.